中文摘要：

基于线性或近似线性加载情况下路基沉降过程和Usher曲线，将广泛用于经济和资源预测的Usher模型应用于路基沉降预测。对Usher模型微分方程式的分析表明，目前用于沉降预测的Logistic模型和Gompertz模型是Usher模型的两种简化形式，但Usher模型对于实际情况具有更强的适应性。阐述了Usher模型参数的计算方法，并结合某工程实例进行了计算分析，对比结果说明Usher模型用于沉降预测的效果较好，且比Logistic模型和Gompertz模型具有更高的预测精度，可供工程应用参考。

英文摘要：

Usher model, as a model for general prediction of petroleum economy and resources, is used to predict roadbed settlement based on the process of roadbed settlement under the linear or approximately linear loading and the characteristics of the Usher curve. Through analyzing the differential equations of the Usher model, it is pointed out that the Logistic model and Gompertz model used for settlement prediction of foundation at present are two simplified patterns, but to the actual condition, the applicability of the Usher model is better. The calculation methods of the parameters in Usher model are expounded; and they are applied to the calculation for an example; the comparison of results between the three models shows a good agreement, which indicates that the Usher model advised in predicting the subsoil settlement is reasonable. The example also indicates that the Usher model has a higher forecast accuracy and may be adopted in engineering practice.