中文摘要：

低碳城市是在改造和适应全球气候的基础上提出的未来城市发展模板。城市的碳排放值是衡量低碳城市的主要指标。从社会经济、能源和环境3个角度分析了天津市现状，并在此基础上进行情景分析，估算不同情景下天津市2010--2050年的碳排放量。主要结论有：（1）天津市近10年能源消费量和碳排放量均呈现出持续上涨的趋势；（2）从产业结构来看，第二产业所产生的碳排放是天津市碳排放的主体，而一次能源中，煤炭所形成的碳排放占据了首位；（3）天津市在节能情景下即可完成我国2020年的减排承诺，在低碳情景下，天津市可以承担更多的减排责任；（4）按低碳模式发展，天津市将在2020--2035年间达到碳排放的高峰。基于这些结论，提出天津市构建低碳城市的策略，这些策略也同样适用于处于城市化后期的其他中国城市。

英文摘要：

Low-carbon city which based on the transformation and adaptation to global climate is the template of future urban development, and the city＇s carbon emission is the main indicators to measure a low-carbon city. This paper presents a system analysis approach on the status of Tianjin from the views of socio-economic, energy and environmental, and then, the prospective carbon emission of Tianjin in 2010 and 2050 were estimated based on scenarios analysis. The main results are ： （ 1 ） both the energy consumption and the carbon emission of Tianjin show a continuously increasing trend in recent ten years; （2） from the view of industrial structure, secondary industry carbon emission occupies the biggest share. Among the total carbon emission of primary energy, coal＇ s emission occupies the biggest share. （3） under the energy-saving scenario, Tianjin can complete the emission reduction commitments of 2020, and Tianjin can take on more responsibility for emissions reductions in the low-carbon sce- nario. （4） Tianjin will reach the peak of carbon emission between 2020 and 2035 under the scenario of low-car- bon. Based on these results, strategic suggestions for building low-carbon city in Tianjin have been proposed, which can also be applied to other China＇ s cities which are in the later stage of urbanization.