中文摘要：

从2011年起，蔬菜产量和产值均超过粮食，已跃居成为中国的第一大农产品，其生产状况影响全国市场的稳定．蔬菜产量受诸多因素影响因此数据波动性大，并且具有小样本性及贫信息等特点．本文采用基于最小二乘法的GM（1，1）模型，应用灰色系统预测理论对我国未来几年内蔬菜产量进行了短期预测．首先介绍了普通GM（1，1）模型；然后通过最小二乘法的原理弱化波动较大的数据，减少随机性，加强规律性建立基于最小二乘法的GM（1，1）模型；其次结合2009至2013年我国蔬菜产量数据建立预测模型；最后经过误差检验并使用2014年数据对模型可靠性进行验证，基于最小二乘法的GM（1，1）模型的预测结果更加接近实际值．预测结果显示未来3年中国蔬菜产量将持续增加，该模型为其他相关预测提供了理论依据，也便于我国对未来蔬菜产品市场进行宏观调控，维持市场平衡，避免价格波动风险．

英文摘要：

Since 2011 the production and output of vegetable in China have exceeded that of grain and become the largest agricultural product so that its production affects the stability of the national market. Owing to the production of vegetable being affected by many factors, the available data of the production have three shorta- ges： large volatility, small sample size and poor information. In order to predict the vegetable yield in China in a short term, we apply a GM（1,1） model based on least square method and the gray system prediction theory, where the least square method is used to weaken the large fluctuation of data and to reduce the randomness. The predicting model is established with the vegetable production data of 2009 to 2014 and is showed with the data of 2014 to have good forecasting accuracy. The forecasting results show that the production of vegetable will continue to increase in the next three years, which can provide some references for other related predic- tion, for facilitating the macro-regulation to the future vegetable market to maintain market balance and avoid risks of price fluctuation.