中文摘要：

人类活动带来土地利用覆被变化以及能源消耗加大对区域碳排放的影响，成为关系区域可持续发展的重要问题。本文在相关碳排放方法研究基础上，采用物料衡算法计算人类呼吸和化石能源消耗的释碳量，采用植被生物量法计算区域陆地生态系统的固碳量，据此综合测度区域自身碳收支平衡能力，并以长江三角洲核心区为例，进一步研究了区域内部碳收支平衡能力的空间分异问题。研究表明，1995年以来随着人类活动强度的增加和陆地植被面积减少，长三角核心区的碳收支不平衡性不断加剧，依靠自身陆地生态系统已无法实现平衡，特别是在沿沪宁线地区和中心城市尤为明显。研究结果可为制定产业转型、土地利用、节能减排等差别化区域政策提供依据。

英文摘要：

The land use/cover change and energy consumption caused by human activities not only have affected the carbon emission process, but also is a hot topic in the regional sustainable development. Based on the research of carbon emission evaluation methods, this paper applied the two methods--one was material balance algorithm which was aimed to calculate carbon emissions caused by human respiratory and fossil energy consumption, and the other was vegetation biomass method to calculate carbon fixation of the regional terrestrial ecosystem--to comprehensively estimate regional carbon balance. Upon the above analysis, the paper studied the balance of carbon budget in the Yangtze River Delta and the spatial differentiation of the balance ability in this region. Since 1995, the carbon budget of core areas in the Yangtze River Delta has become increasingly unbalanced with the increase of human intervention and decline of land vegetation. Those processes e- merged in the region along the Shanghai--Nanjing line and other core cities, indicating that the terrestrial ecosystem cannot keep a balance by depending on itself. Moreover, policy suggestions to improve the balance of carbon budget were provided from the perspective of industrial transformation, land use patterns, spatial governance, etc.