中文摘要：

在经济发达地区资源环境约束趋紧和经济发展转型背景下,开展人口规模预测研究对协调人口、资源、经济之间的关系具有积极意义。以无锡市区为例,核算土地资源人口承载力与不同时间阶段经济合理人口规模,分析土地资源人口承载量与经济合理人口规模之间的关系,解析未来人口发展趋势和影响因素。结果表明：无锡市区人口仍将稳步增加,外来人口仍将是常住人口增量的主体,但增速趋缓;2015、2020年经济合理人口分别约为404万和434万人,逐渐超出土地资源承载力所确定的402万人的合理人口规模;经济增长引起的就业人口的需求增长是导致人口总量增长的主要因素。未来需要通过产业结构调整、劳动生产率提升、公共服务设施完善等手段调控人口发展,以减轻资源环境压力和保障经济发展。

英文摘要：

Population is one of the key factors which affect regional economic and social development by influencing industrial and urban function, the amount and intensity of usage on water and land resources, and construction of traffic infrastructure and public service facilities. The promotion of new urbanization, the construction of ecological civilization, and the transformation of economic development mode, make it a more important issue for regional population forecast. Under the background of the resources and environmental constraints and the transformation of economic development, factors affecting the population development in economically developed areas tend to be more and more complicated. Therefore, the related research is of significance for the enriching research on population forecast, coordinating the relationship among population, resource, and economic development. Wuxi city is of the major constituent parts of core areas of Yangtze Delta which is one of the three most developed economic regions of China. After thirty years＇ high-speed economic development since Reform ＆ Opening-up, Wuxi city is bearing bigger and bigger resource and environmental pressure, and at the stage of speeding economic transformation. Taking Wuxi city as the case area, the population forecast was carried out from the aspect of land carrying capacity. Economic reasonable population forecast was performed using the EOP-MM model. The relationship between land carrying capacity and economic rational population was compared and the future population development trend was analyzed. Results indicated that the rational population size was of about 4.02 million from the aspect of carrying capacity of land resources, and the economic reasonable population was about 4.04 and 4.34 million in the year of 2015 and 2020, respectively. The carrying capacity of land resources would be overloaded gradually and the overloading ratio would be close to 8% at the year of 2020. However, the density of population would be 3 810 people per square