近年来,随着经济全球化的迅速发展,我国开始实施自由贸易区战略,推进速度与规模令世人瞩目。以2000—2010年期间中国和14个贸易伙伴的贸易数据为样本,采用加入自由贸易协定等变量的扩展的引力模型对各因素对我国贸易流量的影响进行实证分析。结果显示:贸易国(地区)的经济规模、人口数量、文化以及贸易制度安排是影响我国对外贸易的主要因素,其中,自由贸易区的建立在一定程度上确实可以促进我国同贸易国(地区)的贸易流量,而距离对我国贸易流量的阻碍作用仍然十分显著。
Recent years, with the rapid development of economic globalization,China started to implement free trade area(FTA) strategy, and the speed and scale attracted lots of the attention. Based on traditional gravity model, this paper adds variables such as free trade agreements to establish an extended gravity model to analyze various factors" impact on China's trade flows. The empirical results show that the economic scale of the trading nations or regions, population, culture and trade arrangements are the main factors to affect China's trade flow. The establishment of free trade area exposes a positive effect to a certain extent, while distance still plays a significantly negative role. In addition, on the matter of free trade agreements, trading partners" economic scale also has a negative correlation with trade flows. These conclusions may be expected to provide some policy suggestion for the further development of China FTA.