中文摘要：

电接触可靠性是有触点电器产品可靠性的一个重要方面,所以评估触点的电接触性能及可靠性和预测其失效时间对提高有触点电器产品的使用可靠性具有重要的应用价值。针对继电器失效原因的复杂性,提出基于灰理论的电接触可靠性预测。通过建立单变量预测模型GM（1,1）,较好地预测电接触失效的问题。并且用动态接触电阻测量系统进行HH52P型电磁继电器失效检测试验,证实灰预测模型的准确性。

英文摘要：

Electrical contact reliability is an important aspect of contactor electric products reliability,so assessment of electrical contact performance and reliability and prediction its failure time to improve operational reliability of contactor electrical apparatus products have important application value.Aiming at the complexity of the relay failure reasons,prediction of electrical contact reliability is put forward based on gray theory.By establishing of a single variable prediction model GM（1,1）,preferable forecasting the electrical contact failure problems.And HH52P type electromagnetic relays failure detection test is done using dynamic contact resistance measurement system,it proves the accuracy of the grey prediction models.