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中文摘要：
期权合同和固定承诺合同是货运应用中的两类重要合同,已有研究多从承运企业的角度分析两类合同对海运链的协调作用.本文从货运代理的角度出发研究合同市场和现货市场并存的情况下两类货运合同的应用价值,根据改进的报童模型分析了多阶段模型下针对两类货运合同的货运代理最优运力预订策略和运力执行策略,并在此基础上分析了合同的灵活性价值.进一步研究了期权的执行时序对两类合同应用价值及期权合同灵活性的影响.研究结果表明,在两类信息模式下货运代理最优合同选择都是期权合同,而且合同执行时序滞后降低了现货价格信息不确定性,提高了期权合同的应用价值.
英文摘要：
In the freight industry,both option contract and fixed-commitment contract are of great value in practice,and previous research focuses solely on supply chain coordination from the carrier’s point of view. This paper aims to study the application value of both contracts from the forwarder’s point of view.According to the modified newsvendor model,we analyze the optimal reservation strategy and excise strategy under both contracts.And based on that,we study the value of contract flexibility.Furthermore,this paper studies the effect of excise sequence of the contract on the application value and flexibility of both contracts.And the results show that under both spot-price information models,the forwarder’s optimal choice is option contract, and the lag of exercising sequence cuts down the spot-price uncertainty,improve the value of option contract.
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