以利率、汇率、房价、股价和社会融资规模作为基础指标,基于状态空间模型和卡尔曼滤波算法构建我国的FSCI指数,将其作为金融稳定的代理变量纳入一个前瞻性货币政策反应函数。实证结果表明:我国金融稳定和物价稳定是相互影响的;在短期金融稳定与物价稳定并不一致,但在长期二者具有一致性;我国货币政策在实践中关注了短期金融稳定,对于长期金融稳定关注不够。
Using interest rate, exchange rate, housing price, stock price and social financing scale as basic indexes, and based on state space model and Kalman filter algorithm, the paper builds China's FSCI index, which is incorporated into a forward-looking monetary policy reaction function as a financial stability proxy variable. The empirical results show that: in China, financial stability and price stability are influenced mutually ; financial stability in the short term is not consistent with price stability, but in the long-term financial stability has a consistency with price stability; China's monetary policy concerns the short-term financial stability in practice, but there is an insufficient concern about the long-term financial stability.