本文以中国1995--2011年29个省份的面板数据为样本,考察了人均GDP和碳生产率的趋同效应和脱钩状态,结果表明:①基于泰尔指数的dr收敛显示,全国整体在两变量上分别呈现倒“U”型和“U”型收敛趋势。但东中西内部和组闻的差距形态各异,且东部和组间差距均是两变量总体差距的主要成因;②8收敛结果显示,由于各省份在技术进步率、国际竞争程度、产业结构偏好和能源结构等因素上的差异,导致两变量更多地呈现条件/3收敛而非绝对B收敛趋势,即向各自的稳态水平而非统一水平趋近;(3)Tapio脱钩指数和追赶脱钩指数模型显示.中国各省份在实现人均GDP的不断增长,但碳生产率的增长速度相对滞后.说明碳生产率在向着一个相对较低的各自稳态水平趋近,要特别注意TaDi。脱钩指数中处于扩张绝对脱钩的省份和追赶脱钩指数中位于衰退相对脱钩的省份.谨防他们在发展模式上的进一步恶化。
With the panel data of China's 29 provinces during 1995--2011 as sample, this paper examines the convergence effect and decoupling state between GDP per capita and carbon productivity, and the results are as follows: (i)tr convergence based on Theil index shows that China as a whole appears to be inverted "U" and "U" form convergent tendency respectively in the two variables, however, gaps between the east, middle and west groups and among each group inside are different, and gaps between the east group and other groups are the main cause of the overall gap between the two variables; (2) convergence result manifests that because of the differences in technological development rate, international competition level, preference of industrial structure and energy structure etc. between provinces, the two variables show to be conditional convergence more than absolute convergence, i.e. approaching to each one's steady state respectively rather than to a single level; (3)Tapio decoupling index and pursuing decoupling index model reveal that although each province's GDP per capita continues to increase, the growth rate of carbon productivity relatively lags behind, which means carbon productivity rate is approaching to relatively low steady state respectively, and provinces with expand absolutely decoupling in Tapio decoupling index and provinces with decline relatively decoupling in pursuing decoupling index should be paid special attention to prevent them from further worsening in development pattern.