中文摘要：

为了顺利完成哥本哈根会议承诺,中国是否需要作出额外的努力？学者们对此有不同的看法。为了理清这一问题,本文在考察我国碳生产率时空演变规律的基础上,使用ARIMA和VAR模型对中国2020年的碳生产率水平进行了预测。研究结果表明：（1）东中西递减的碳生产率水平总体呈现了改良趋势,但各地区及内部省份的改进幅度有较大差异性。同时,全国碳生产率差异的收敛程度较为微弱,主要是因为中部和西部内部及东中西组间的差异程度均呈现不同程度的发散态势。（2）如果延续当前的发展轨迹,我国无法顺利完成哥本哈根会议承诺。其中,全国整体的预测值会落后最低目标值7.64—9.17个百分点,东中西地区则分别会落后最低目标值9.25—10.69个百分点、3.77—5.54个百分点和25.21—26.53个百分点。本文认为,尽快推行碳税和碳交易这两类基于市场机制的减排措施,对破解上述窘境大有裨益。

英文摘要：

In order to fulfill the copenhagen commitments successfully,does China need additional effort to be done？Scholars have many different comments. To solve this problem,using ARIMA Model and VAR Model,we forecast the carbon productivity levels of China in 2020 based on the temporal evolution of the carbon productivity. We find that the carbon productivity levels,which are decreasing from east to west in China,show a improvement tend overall,but there are great differences between three regions and the interior provinces in improvement degree. The degree of convergence of the differences is weak,mainly because the difference degree of the interior of the central region and west region as well as the difference degree among the eastern,middle and western region. And we can＇t fulfill the copenhagen commitments successfully if current development track continues. Compared to the lowest copenhagen commitments,the predictive value of the whole country would fall behind7. 64—9. 17 percentage points,while the east,central,and west area would fall behind 9. 25—10. 69,3. 77—5. 54 and25. 21—26. 53 percentage points respectively. So we conclude that it would be helpful to solve the problem with the implementation of carbon tax and carbon trading based on market mechanism.