中文摘要：

本文在估算中国工业部门直接碳生产率和完全碳生产率的基础上,研究两者的时空演变趋势,并对其未来潜在表现进行预测。研究结果表明：工业部门整体以及采矿业、轻工业、重工业3个分组的直接碳生产率和完全碳生产率在!收敛和绝对β收敛上的表现差异较大,但普遍存在显著的条件β收敛趋势;根据工业部门自身的演变规律预测,2020年碳生产率将大幅度提高,但仍然低于哥本哈根会议的承诺水平。因此,如何推行和完善基于市场机制的节能减排措施,并在供给侧改革中贯穿绿色低碳理念,将是政府未来节能工作的重点。

英文摘要：

Based on estimating the direct carbon productivity and complete carbon productivity of Chinese industrial sectors,the time-space evolution of these two carbon productivities is studied and the potential future performances are forecasted.The results show that there are great differences between σ-convergence and absoluteβ-convergence in the direct carbon productivity and complete carbon productivity of the overall industrial sectors,as well as mining industry,light industry,and heavy industry,however,there is an obvious conditionalβ-convergence in general.According to the evolutional rules of industrial sectors,carbon productivity will remarkably increase in 2020,but still below the Copenhagen Conference commitment level.For future energy saving,the government should focus on carrying out and perfecting energy saving measures based on market mechanisms,and sticking to the concept of green low carbon in supply-side reform.