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中文摘要：
以赤峰水文站上游的集水区为研究区,基于流域内29个雨量站、5个径流站以及1个气象站的观测数据,利用MK趋势检验以及突变点检验分析了1964—2009年流域内的降水与径流的变化趋势和显著性水平。结果表明：自1980年以来,研究区的径流发生了较大的突变,呈明显下降趋势,对比流域上游与下游的径流变化,发现研究区下游的径流变化最为明显。分析气候变化及人类活动的作用,发现人类活动是影响径流下降的主要原因,其中赤峰城市发展带来的农业灌溉用水更是其重要原因。
英文摘要：
On the basis of the hydrometeorological data collected from the 29 precipitation stations, 5 runoff stations, and 1 meteorological stations, we investigated the spatial-temporal change of the key hydrological variables （i.e., precipitation and runoff） in the past 50 years for 5 catchments within the Chifeng basin. We employed the rank-based Mann-Kendall trend test to quantitatively analyze the change trend and significance level for annual precipitation and streamflow. Then we adopted tbe VIC （Variable Infiltration Capacity） model to simulate the rainfall-runoff processes of above 5 catchments during the baseline period. Given the abserved strcamflow and the reconstructed natural streamflow, the effects of climate variability and human activities can be quantitatively separated. Results showed that approximately 98% of streamflow reduction during the changed period of 1980--2009 were attributed to human activities for the Chifeng basin, while the percentage due to the climate variability was only 2%.
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