中文摘要：

老年人长期护理问题已经成为当前我国重要的社会问题之一。文章基于上海市28个社区的调查数据,利用相关定量模型,实证分析上海老年人对护理服务的需求、满意情况及其影响因素。研究发现：不仅老年人健康状况、长期护理费用对老年人口长期护理需求有显著影响,更为重要的是长期护理的资源供给情况已经成为制约老年长期护理发展的关键因素。明确老年人口长期护理服务的责任主体,建立以老年护理需求为导向的评估体系,构建政府主导、社会多元主体参与的长期护理服务体系成为应对人口老龄化风险的有效路径。

英文摘要：

The elderly long-term care has become one of the most important social issues.Basing on the survey data of 28 communities in Shanghai and using relevant quantitative model to analysis the demand and satisfaction degree of the care services of the elderly in Shanghai as well as its influencing factors.The study found：not only the health of the elderly,long-term care costs have a significant influence long-term care needs of the elderly population,more important is the resource supply situation long-term care has become a key factor restricting the development of elderly long-term care.Clear the main responsibility for long-term care of the elderly population,and the establishment of geriatric care demand-oriented evaluation system,building government-led,long-term care service system,multi-subject social participation becomes effective path response to population aging risks.