中文摘要：

要求人民币升值的国际压力部分来自快速的经济增长应当与实际汇率升值相联系的观点，这与“Balassa—Samuelson假说”相关联，它认为贸易部门劳动生产率提高会引起非贸易部门的价格上涨，但人民币实际汇率没有显示出长期升值的趋势。本研究扩展了“Balassa—Samuelson假说”，并引入扩展的1-2—3（CGE）模型进行实证分析。主要结论有：大量剩余劳动力的存在压低了中国的实际汇率，从而没有观察到“Balassa—Samuelson假说”；如果更多的农村劳动力流向服务业部门，即非贸易部门，实际汇率也将面临向下的压力。

英文摘要：

International pressure to revalue RMB stems in part from the expectation that rapid economic growth should be associated with a real exchange rate appreciation. This hinges on the ＂Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis＂ under which economic growth, stemming from improvements in traded sector productivity, causes non-traded prices to rise. RMB real exchange rate has shown no long-run tendency to appreciate. In this paper, we generalize ＂The Balassa-Samuelson effect＂, introduces generalization of the 1-2-3（CGE） model into empirical analysis. The main results are as follows： ＂The Balassa- Samuelson effect＂ was not observed because of ample rural surplus labors in China. Service sectors productivity growth would place downward pressure on real exchange rate, if labor mobility between the rural and industrial sectors is inferior to that between the rural and service sectors.