中文摘要：

通过多变量Prob it模型考察了我国农村贫困在两期之间的状态依赖性,同时分析了决定我国农村居民当期免于贫困的因素,研究发现：（1）人力资本投资中的教育投资和健康投资的反贫困效果最好;（2）从贫困的状态依赖性来看,我国农村低收入者没有陷入明显的持续贫困,收入流动性较强;（3）农村女性收入状况逐年改善,婚姻状况有利于缓解贫困,国家公务员或者企业经理,政府机关、国有企事业单位性质的员工陷入贫困的概率更低,东部地区居民容易免于贫困;（4）改革开放的制度变迁给农村居民带来收入变动的机遇,同时也增加了他们收入的不稳定性;（5）回归结果对低收入门槛的定义比较敏感,有必要在收入分布的＂绝对贫困＂区域上方再划定一个＂基本贫困＂区域。

英文摘要：

This paper discusses poverty state dependence in Chinese rural area with multivariate Probit model and analyzes the current antipoverty determinants.It finds that：（1） education investment and health investment have the best effect;（2） seeing from the poverty state dependence,low-earning rural people do not fall into obviously continuous poverty,and the income mobility is strong;（3） the income of the rural female has improved in recent years and their marriage is helpful to eliminating poverty.Civil servants,business managers and employees working for government,state-owned business are probably not getting into poverty.And residents in Chinese east area are more likely shake off poverty;（4） institutional change in Chinese reform and open policy not only increases the income of rural residents,but also enhances their income instability;（5） the regressing outcome is sensitive to low incoming threshold,so it is necessary to demarcate a ＂basic poverty＂ area on the top of ＂absolute poverty＂ area in income distribution.