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中文摘要：
针对大气系统的混沌特性,提出了10-30 d延伸期数值天气预报的策略思考。可预报性问题,实质上是时空尺度问题,10-30 d的预报虽然超出了逐日天气的可预报时限,但仍存在着可预报的分量。以数值模式为基础,阐述了10-30 d延伸期可预报分量的提取方法。在此基础上,提出了针对可预报分量和混沌分量应采用不同的策略和方法。该设想可借鉴利用现有数值模式的变分同化系统,且无需构建新的模式,因此具有可行性。
英文摘要：
In the light of the chaotic characteristics inherent in the atmosphere,a strategy about 10—30 d forecasting is developed.Actually,the atmospheric predictability depends on the spatial and temporal scales.Although the 10—30 d forecasting has exceeded the limit of predictability of daily weather,some predictable components,like some planetary-scale motions which could be forecasted very well in 10—30 d forecasting,could also be found.Based on the numerical models,a method to obtain the predictable components in 10—30 d forecasting is illustrated in this study.Furthermore,the theory promoted methods and strategies for obtaining the predictable components and chaotic components.Our conceiving of 10—30 d forecasting can directly employ the current variational data assimilation system and numerical model,which make sure its feasibility.
同期刊论文项目
同项目期刊论文
Analysis of Stable Components in Extended-Range Forecast for the Coming 10-30 Days in Winter 2010 an
Forecast scheme and strategy for extended-range predictable components. Science China Earth Sciences
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