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中文摘要：
基于帕尔默干旱指数（Palmer drought severity index,PDSI）中国数据库和中国160个站点的月降水资料,运用趋势分析、对比分析和EOF等方法,对1961—2010年间中国旱涝时空演化特征进行了分析.结果表明：春季的PDSI的年代际空间分布特征与PDSI的年代际空间分布特征相似;夏季和秋季的PDSI的地区差异比较明显,尤其是秋季更为明显.从时间演化上来看,中国华北、东北、西南地区的变干趋势较明显,另外变湿比较明显的区域为西北西部.对1961—2010年夏季的PDSI进行经验正交函数（EOF）分析,可以发现,20世纪80年代以来,中国夏季干旱和洪涝更加频繁,且旱涝强度也增加,尤其是华北、西南、东北地区的干旱和华东地区的洪涝.
英文摘要：
Based on the global Palmer drought severity index （PDSI） data and monthly precipitation data from China, using linear trend analysis, comparative analysis and EOF methods, the spatiotemporal evolution of the droughts and floods over China during 1961-- 2010 has been analyzed. Results show that： The decadal spatial distribution of PDSI in spring is similar to that in year-round. The regional differences of PDSI in summer and autumn are obvious, especially in autumn. According to the linear analysis, climate in North China, Northeast China, Southwest China, South China and East China is becoming dry obviously; while the west of Northwest China is becoming wet. The PDSI in summer from 1961 to 2010 is also analyzed by experience orthogonal function （EOF）. Results show that droughts and floods occur frequently in China since the 1980s and the intensity of droughts and floods is also increased, especially droughts in the North China, Southwest China, Northeast China and floods in East China.
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同项目期刊论文
Analysis of Stable Components in Extended-Range Forecast for the Coming 10-30 Days in Winter 2010 an
Forecast scheme and strategy for extended-range predictable components. Science China Earth Sciences
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