中文摘要：

针对分布式高炮系统数字化改造出现的新变化,研究了数字化改造后高炮系统的命中概率。首先分析了射击误差和目标位置误差,在预测迎弹面的目标投影为圆域假定下,分别给出了牵引高炮系统在不带基线修正的传统平行射向和数字化改造后带基线修正射击体制下的命中概率理论计算公式。理论研究表明：在相同前提下,带基线修正的分布式数字化高炮系统的命中概率优于不带基线修正的传统高炮系统;前者的基线斜距仅对弹丸散布形状有影响,而对整体命中概率影响不显著;且合理的基线斜距相对误差导致的理论命中点偏差,对整体命中概率影响也十分有限。理论分析中的单门高炮一次点射发弹的命中概率通过Monte-Carlo仿真得到。

英文摘要：

For a distributed antiaircraft system has new changes after the digital transformation, the distributed digital antiaircraft system （DDAS） hit probability was studied. The shooting error and the target location error were analyzed. Under the assumption that target projection is a circular area in the forecast plane, the hit probability theoretical formulas of a traditional parallel firing system without baseline amendment and a digital firing system with baseline amendment were presented respectively. Theoretical analyses show that under the same conditions, the hit probability of the latter is higher than that of the former; the baseline distance of the latter has an influence only on shape of the projectile dispersion, but has no remarkable influence on the entire hit probability; influence of the hit point error caused by the reasonable error of baseline distance on the entire hit probability is finite. The hit probability of a burst of N projectiles for single antiaircraft in theoretical analysis was calculated by the Monte-Carlo simulation.