在人口转变和人口红利下降的新阶段,鼓励农村女性走出家庭、实现就业对于提高人口红利、增加家庭收入具有积极作用,但这是以减少生育数量、推迟生育年龄、导致生育率下降等潜在后果为代价的,其长远的后果将会导致劳动年龄人口占比进一步下降。使用CHNS数据库研究了农村女性劳动参与对生育数量、生育年龄的综合影响,在控制了头胎性别和生育政策的情况下,消除内生性后的实证结果显示,非农劳动参与对生育数量有显著的负面影响,对初育年龄的影响不明显。反映工作稳定性的指标,合同工对农村女性生育数量的影响不稳定,但会显著影响初育年龄,工作相对稳定会推迟女性的初育年龄。国家的政策应当关注女性劳动参与对生育行为的负面影响,通过配套的劳动力市场或托幼政策减轻劳动参与对生育的负面影响。
The policies that encourage female employment promote women obtain employment to participate in the non - agricultural labor has brought some positive effects such as increased household income. But that win pay the price that incubation time or quality, leading to fertility rate decline as the potential consequences, and will result in the further shortage of working - age people in a long - term. In the background that "one and half children" policy implemented in China,' s rural areas, the paper studies the combined effect of female labor participation on the number of children, child - bearing age using CHNS. After the elimination of endogenous, the 2SLS empirical test that controlled the first - born gender and fertility policy results that there are significant negative effect of non - agricultural labor force participation on number of children and age of first birth, while the impact of the nature of the contract workers on the number of children and the age of first birth is positive. Analysis of such a complex combined effect is expected to have strong policy implications.