中文摘要：

基于长春市公安局提供的警区层面的犯罪数据,分析了长春市2008年财产犯罪率的空间分布特征。研究发现长春市财产犯罪率呈现出城市中心高而外围低的圈层式空间模式。通过对犯罪高发区域的用地性质和功能的分析发现,长春市主要商业区和主要客运交通枢纽所在警区均具有较高的财产犯罪率。利用空间分析的方法,判定出长春市财产犯罪的热点地区,从统计学意义上验证了犯罪活动的空间集聚性,进而推测这些区域可能存在犯罪扩散和溢出效应。借鉴国外相关理论及实证研究,结合长春市实际情况,通过回归建模分析,探讨了长春市财产犯罪率同人口、社会经济、土地利用等各因子可能存在的相互关系,发现长春市财产犯罪率受到人口密度、就业活跃度、商业区、服务业活跃度、客运枢纽和年轻人口比例的显著影响,在一定程度上支持了日常活动理论的基本观点,但需结合长春市实际情况做具体分析与解释。

英文摘要：

Based on the crime data in 2008 collected at the police-precinct level from the Public Security Bureau of Changchun,this article firstly analyzes the spatial pattern of property crimes in this typical city with a population around 3 × 106 in Northeast China.An approximate structure of layers was shown,which means more crimes in central areas and fewer crimes outside.After further investigation on the land use and function of the precincts with higher property crime rates,it is found that the busy areas such as the major commercial areas and the transport centers tend to possess higher probability of property crime occurrences.According to the routine activities theory which has been applied by western researchers in plenty of practical studies,the places where most of the opportunities of convergence in space and time of likely offenders,suitable targets and the absence of capable guardians against crime concentrate will suffer higher risks of criminal activities.The busy areas in Changchun possess more properties and usually gather more people for working,shopping,entertaining and so on,which means more opportunities for the potential offenders to commit property crimes with less chances to get arrested.The hotspots of property crime rates in Changchun are identified using spatial analysis,which provides us with statistical support for the assumption that criminal activities tend to cluster somewhere.This phenomenon may due to the existence of spatial spillover or diffusion.Finally,we conduct regression analysis to examine the relationships between property crime rates and demographic,socioeconomic as well as land use factors according to the relevant western theories.The model built in this article can explain more than 70% of the variation of property crime rates in Changchun at more than 95% confidence level.The result reveals that the property crime rates in Changchun in 2008 were affected by the factors of population density,employment activity,commercial area,service activities,transport center and the pr