本文基于水热耦合平衡方法,对我国北方108个流域的水文气象数据分析发现,流域实际蒸发量不仅取决于降雨量和潜在蒸发量的大小,还与二者的同步性密切相关。本文引入气候季节性指数(S)来定量描述水(降雨)热(潜在蒸发量)的同步性。相关性分析表明S是水热耦合平衡的重要影响因素,将其引入估算水热耦合平衡方程参数的经验公式中,可以显著提高流域年蒸发量的模拟精度。在过去40年,部分流域气候季节性指数发生了趋势性变化,引起的流域蒸发的变化在20%的流域超过总变化量的20%。
Through an analysis on hydrologic and climatic data from 108 catchments in north China by a water-energy balance method, this study found that catchment evaporation depends not only on the amounts of precipitation and potential evaporation, but also on the seasonalily difference between seasonal precipitation and potential evaporation. To parameterize seasonality, climate seasonality index (S) is introduced in this paper, and correlation analysis shows that this index is an important factor in determining actual evaporation. Therefore, we put forth an empirical equation to include its effect in estimation of the parameters of waterenergy balance equation, which improves the estimation of actual evaporation. This study also found that during the past 40 years the index S took a trend of significant variation, and it caused a change of 20% or more in the actual evaporation over 20% of the 108 catchments.