中文摘要：

城市饱和经济及饱和负荷的预测对城市经济发展和电网规划的协调具有重要的意义。将系统动力学及计量经济分析方法进行综合，建立了城市饱和电力负荷预测模型。以北京市为例进行算例分析，通过分析得到北京市经济发展同电力消费存在长期的协整关系，北京市经济约在2036年达到饱和状态，由于经济的发展对电力影响的滞后性，负荷约在2038年才达到饱和状态。

英文摘要：

It is of great significance to forecast the economy saturation and the load saturation for the development of urban economy and grid planning. This paper set up the saturation load forecast model by combining the methods of system dynamics （SD） and econometrics. A case study was carried on according to the situation in Beijing. The results showed that there exist a long-term relationship between Beijing economic development and the electricity consumption. Beijing economy would reach saturation in 2036 and its load would reach saturation in 2038.