从系统动态的观点出发,分析了第二产业用电量各种影响因素的因果关系,构造了由GDP、第二产业电力消费强度两个子系统组成的第二产业电力经济模拟仿真系统,在此基础上建立了第二产业用电需求预测模型。最后通过对辽宁省第二产业用电量的模拟仿真与预测,初步证明了模型的全面性、准确性和实用性。
The causal relationship between electricity consumption of the industrial sector and various influencing factors is analyzed from the point of view of system dynamics. The electricity and economy simulation system which consists of two subsystems of GDP and the industrial sector electricity consumption intensity was constructed, and based on that the industrial sector electricity consumption forecast model was established. The model was used to forecast the industrial sector electricity consumption of Liaoning Province and was proved accurate and practical.