中文摘要：

研究目的：通过对传统的＂四阶段＂客流预测方法优缺点的分析,对交通出行方式分担率预测模型进行改进,提高客流量预测的准确性,为轨道交通车站站台尺寸及其它设施的设计提供依据。研究结论：在交通出行方式分担率的预测模型中,引入＂出行者收入水平＂这一概念,重新定义了交通出行方式阻抗函数,优化了传统的＂四阶段＂客流预测方法。以北京地铁1号线五棵松车站为例,对该车站高峰小时进出站客流进行了预测,将预测得到的客流量与实际客流量进行了对比,证明了本文所提出的方法是一种快捷、有效的客流预测方法。

英文摘要：

Research purposes：Based on the analysis of advantages and disadvantages of conventional four-stage passenger volume prediction model,the travel mode share prediction model is modified for the purposes of enhancing the accuracy of passenger volume prediction and providing the basis for design of platform size and other facilities of rail communication station.Research conclusions：The concept of ＂Traveler Income Level＂ has been used for the travel mode share prediction model,a new travel mode resistance function is defined,and also,a new improved four-stage passenger volume prediction model is presented.Finally,taking Wukesong Station of line 1 of Beijing subway as an example,the peak passenger volume of Wukesong Station is predicted forecast with the method presented in this paper.Through comparison of the predicted volume with actual passenger volume,it is proved that the method is a quick and efficient method for predicting passenger volume.