随着全球气候变暖,城市化进程加快,导致城市暴雨积涝灾害频繁发生,严重威胁了城市居民生命、财产安全。城市暴雨积涝灾害风险预警对城市暴雨积涝灾害应急救助与应急预案制定具有重要意义。依据自然灾害风险形成理论、区域灾害系统理论、灾害预警理论建立城市暴雨积涝灾害风险预警理论、技术流程、指标体系及模型。基于风险评价基础上的城市暴雨积涝灾害风险预警,考虑了承灾体特征,将传统的城市暴雨积涝灾害预警和风险评价结果相结合,实现了由单纯的天气预警向灾害风险预警进一步延伸。研究结果为城市应急管理部门进行城市暴雨积涝灾害应急管理、应急决策制定提供了依据和指导。
With the development of social economy, highly centralized social wealth, and rapid improvement of ur- banization, China has stepped into high- -risk society. Disaster risk early warning is meaningful to emergency rescue and contingency planning. However, there are no intense research of risk early warning for waterlogging disaster at home and abroad. The theory, basic procedure, indicator system and conceptual model of risk early warning for waterlogging dis- aster were developed base on natural disaster risk theory, regional disaster sys- tem theory, disaster risk early warning theory. The risk early warning for water- logging disaster based on risk assessment takes simple weather warning further ex- tension into disaster risk early warning by integrating traditional weather early warning and risk assessment result ac- cording to hazard-affected body features. The risk early warning for waterlogging disaster can not only predict the water- logging disaster, but also the potential loss caused by it. The study is specifical- ly intend to support local and national government agencies of waterlogging disaster management for making resource allocation decisions and high-level plan- ning decisions.