中文摘要：

西天山托木尔峰南部地区1987年以来出现了气候由暖干向暖湿转变趋势，在温度大幅上升的基础上，降水量和冰川融水量持续增加，相应的水文与生态环境也发生了显著的改善。本文在综合分析区域内水文、气象观测资料的基础上，对托木尔峰南部地区近40年来气温、降水以及径流量变化的基本趋势、不同海拔高度气温、降水变化差异，以及同一流域山区和平原区径流量变化的差异进行丁深入分析。研究表明，受水汽输送途径和研究区地形地貌的影响，区域降水主要集中在托木尔峰南部山区；气候转型的原因是和北大西洋向东输送的水汽增加、西风气流加强有关；海拔2000m左右区域1987年以来气候向暖湿转化最为明显；近40年来由于气温升高，导致冰川消融补给河流量增加15％，但由于人类活动和粗放农业的发展，区域耗水量不断增加，导致塔里木河径流量不断减少，中下游生态环境急剧恶化。

英文摘要：

Climate has shifted from warm-dry to warm-humid in southern Tuomuer, Tianshan, Xinjiang since 1987. On the basis of temperature increase precipitation and glaciers melt water are stably increasing, relevant hydrology and environment obviously improved. On the basis of synthetically analyzing the data of regional hydrology and climate, in this paper, we have analyzed the variational trend of tem perature, precipitation and runoff, distinction of temperature and precipitation in different altitude range, and streams flow variety between mountain and plain in the same watershed in the southern Tuo muer during the past 40 Years. It is found that regional precipitation focus on mountainous basin of southern Tuomuer because of the effects of water vapour transport route and the landform of research region. The reason for climatic shift is relevant with the increase of water vapour from the north Atlan tic and west storms enhanced. The area above 2000m in altitude, where the climatic shift to warm dry is the most obvious. With the temperature increase, the water quantity of glaciers melted to supply rivers was added by 15%. But because of human activities and rude agriculture development, and the region consumption of water stably increasing, the runoff of Tarim River reduced continuously, the envi ronment of mid-lower reaches deteriorated sharply.