研究目的:分析研究退耕还林工程对西部山区农户收入的影响和作用。研究方法:利用西安交通大学人口与发展研究所2008年4月在周至南部山区的农户生计调查数据,建立统计回归模型,分别采用多元线性和分位数回归分析方法,定量分析退耕还林工程对西部山区农户收入的影响。研究结果:参与退耕还林对农户家庭纯收入有着显著的正向影响,尤其是对于中低收入农户,但参与退耕通过户耕地面积和农业劳动时间变化对中低水平的农户收入也仍有一定的负面作用。研究结论:为巩固退耕工程成果,当地政府应提供信息,提高农户的社会资本,积极发展外出务工等非农生产活动。
The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impacts and effects of the Program of Farmland Conversion for Forest Land(PFCF)on the income of the households in the mountain areas of western China. Methods employed are the econometric regression models, e.g., multiple linear and quantile regression, using the data set of farmer livelihood in the mountain area of south Zhouzhi County surveyed by School of Public Policy and Administration of Xi'an Jiaotong University in April of 2008. The results indicate that participation in the PFCF has obviously positive impact on the income of rural household, especially for the households with low or medium income in spite of some negative impacts exists, which the negative impacts are due to the decrease of the total amount of farmland and the labor input in agricultural production of individual household. It is concluded that in order to enhance the effects of the PFCF, the local governments should provide more market or technical information to increase the social capital of the rural households, and to encourage the farmers to take non-agricultural production activities, e.g., off-farm jobs outside.