中文摘要：

[摘要]在人口老龄化压力下，世界各国的公共养老金大多面临可持续发展的挑战，从而纷纷实施各种改革，以帮助恢复系统的财务偿付能力。在我国，从2011年7月开始实施的《社会保险法》对社会保险制度提出财务可持续发展的要求，但实践中并没有建立起相应的财务风险管理系统，相关的理论研究比较缺乏。本文在讨论社会养老保险财务可持续性的内涵和度量方法的基础上，通过建立精算评估模型，对我国社会养老保险的未来收支和长期精算平衡进行了测算分析。结果表明，如果不对现行制度实施改革，制度在未来的发展中将会面临支付赤字。建立多层次养老金体系，并采取提高退休年龄和调整待遇等改革措施，将会有效缓解制度的财务压力，有助于制度的财务可持续发展。[关键词]人口老龄化；养老保险；精算模型；财务可持续性[中图分类号]F840．67[文献标识码]A[文章编号]1004—3306（2013）04一0118—10

英文摘要：

Abstract： As a result of global population ageing and economic slowdown, the public pension systems worldwide are facing with significant financial unsustainability and have to be reformed. In China, the Social Insurance Act im- plemented in 2011 has the requirement of financial sustainability for social pension system, but there are no financial risk management system in practice and related theoretical study on it. In this paper, we discussed the concept of financial sustainability of social pension systems and the method to measure it, and then built a long term actuarial model to evaluate the financial income, outgo and balance. The result was that, the current system would face with a serious financial insolvency problem in the future if the current system was not reformed. Lifting retirement age and cutting the benefit would help to recover financial balance but need to develop a multi-pillar system to provide adequate pension benefit.Key words： population ageing; social pension system ; actuarial models ; financial sustainability