随着全球人口老龄化的加剧和人口长寿风险的增强,世界各国的公共养老金体系普遍面临日益严重的支付压力,制度的偿付能力和持续发展面临巨大挑战。但实践中,对于如何评估公共养老金体系的偿付能力还没有形成全球一致性的原则与方法,我国在这些方面的理论研究与实践经验基本上处于空白状态。本文将在文献学习和国际经验对比分析的基础上,对国际上两种代表性的公共养老金体系偿付能力评估模型进行评析,以期为我国基本养老保险偿付能力评估系统的建立提供参考。
For public pension systems, their solvency and sustainability have proved to be the most important issues when many countries worldwide are facing significant fiscal challenges from population ageing, but there are not recognized principles and methods to tackle this problem. There are few theoretical study and experience in China. In this paper,we tried to study the concepts, principles and methods for evaluation of solvency and sustainability of public pension systems through literature studies and experience analysis. For the models of evaluation, we focused on the comparative analysis of two typical public pension systems in the world and then gave some suggestions for China.