全球人口老龄化使世界各国的社会养老保险面临日益增大的财务压力和可持续发展的巨大挑战,从而对社会养老保险的财务风险管理和财务预警提出了更高的要求。在实践中,以美国为代表的大多数国家采用现金流量预测方法评估社会养老保险的长期财务状况,瑞典则开创性地引入了资产负债表,采用复式记账法从存量角度评估公共养老保险的资产与负债水平,引入偿付能力比率衡量制度的偿付能力状况,引入自动平衡机制调节制度的资产和负债平衡,从而不仅增加了制度财务的透明性,也为制度财务可持续发展提供了有效的保障。在我国,有关社会养老保险财务报告和财务管理的理论研究与实践经验基本处于空白,本文将对瑞典公共养老保险系统的资产负债表进行深入剖析,以探讨广泛适用的社会养老保险资产负债表的原理和应用,并为我国社会养老保险资产负债表的建立提供建议。
With the global trend of population ageing, social pension insurance programs in many countries are facing with significant fiscal challenges and sustainability problems. As a result, there is a higher requirement for financial risk management and financial prewaming. In practice, some countries, like the U. S, use aggregate cashflow projection models to evaluate the long-term financial status of social pension systems, while Sweden introduces the balance sheet into the process, and uses the double-entry accounting system to evaluate the pay-as-you-go pension system' s assets and liabilities from the aspect of the current balance. The Sweden method also applies the sol- vency ratio to measure the solvency status and uses the automatic balancing mechanism to adjust the balance, therefore it not only increases the financial transparency of the system, hut also helps to ensure the system' s financial sustainability. In China, there are few experiences and theoretical study on financial reporting and financial risk management for the social pension system. In this paper, we focused on the experience analysis for the balance sheet of Swedish public pension system, discussed the fundamental theory and comprehensive application of balance sheet for pay-as-you-go pension system, and gave some suggestions for establishing the balance sheet of social pen- sion program in China.