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中文摘要：
分析了威胁判断中常权评估方法可能导致不合理评估结果的原因，针对舰艇对抗反舰导弹的威胁判断问题，结合变权原理提出了来袭反舰导弹威胁判断的变权确定方法，进而建立了舰艇对抗反舰导弹威胁判断的变权评估模型。实例分析表明该方法较现有的方法更可信合理，可为威胁评判提供理论与方法支持。
英文摘要：
The reason that may cause unreasonable assessment in threat judgment with the constant weighted method is analyzed. Aimed at the threat judgment for warship vs antiship missiles, this paper puts forward a variable weight determination method of threat judgment for the raiding antiship missiles based on the variable weighted theory, and a variable weight assessment model of threat judgment for warship vs antiship missiles is established. A case analysis indicates that this method is reliable and reasonable compared with existent methods and it can offer theoretical and methodological support to threat judgment.
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