为探讨兰州市大气污染对心脑血管疾病住院的急性健康效应,采用单向回顾性配对病例交叉设计,分析了兰州市2001~2005年大气污染物浓度(PM10、SO2及NO2)短期升高对人群心脑血管疾病住院的影响.结果表明,单向回顾性1:2匹配病例交叉研究的效应值(ORs)最大,在控制同期天气因素后,滞后3d PM10浓度每升高10μg/m3,总心脑血管疾病及心血管疾病住院的ORs分别为1.002(95%CI:1.001~1.003)和1.002(95%CI:1.001~1.003);无滞后SO2浓度每升高10μg/m3对总心脑血管疾病住院的OR值为1.005(95%CI:1.000~1.009);NO2在滞后1d浓度每升高10μg/m3对总心脑血管疾病OR值为1.022(95%CI:1.014~1.030);对心血管疾病及脑血管疾病住院影响均在滞后2d达到最大,ORs值分别为1.021(95%CI:1.011~1.030)和1.019(95%CI:1.005~1.033).在多污染物模型中,PM10仍对心血管疾病住院人数增加有统计学意义;NO2对心脑血管疾病住院的影响均较单污染物模型中大.
To explore the acute effect of air pollution and hospital admissions for cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Lanzhou,unidirectional retrospective case-crossover design was used to analyze the relation of daily average concentration of air pollutants(PM10、SO2 and NO2) in short-time increased with the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases hospitalizations from 2001 to 2005.The results showed that the unidirectional case-crossover design with 1:2 matched pairs had the highest odds ratios between air pollutants and hospital admissions.After being adjusted for meteorological factors,an increase of 10μg/m3 in PM10 was significantly associated with 1.002(95%CI: 1.001~1.003) and 1.002(95%CI: 1.001~1.003) at 3 days lag increase respectively for total circulatory diseases(ICD10:I00~I99) and cardiovascular disease(ICD10:I00~I52);an increase of 10μg/m3 in SO2 was associated with 1.005(95%CI:1.000~1.009) for total circulatory diseases hospitalizations;a 10μg/m3 increment in NO2 was significantly associated with hospital admissions on value of ORs 1.022(95%CI:1.014~1.030) for the total circulatory diseases at 1day lag,1.021(95%CI: 1.011~1.030) for cardiovascular disease at 2 days lag,1.019(95%CI:1.005~1.033) for cerebrovascular diseases(ICD10: I60~I69) at 2 days lag respectively.In the multiple air pollutant models,an increase of 10μg/m3 in PM10 was also associated with cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases hospitalizations,the OR values of NO2 were higher than the single pollutant models.