中文摘要：

利用2005年1月1日-2008年12月31日南京市逐日呼吸系统疾病死亡人数资料和同期气象资料,研究了气象要素变化对呼吸系统疾病死亡人数的影响.结果表明：南京市呼吸系统疾病死亡人数冬季最高,其次是春季,秋季和夏季较少;南京市逐日呼吸系统疾病死亡人数对气象要素变化的响应存在滞后性,春季滞后6-7 d,夏秋季滞后8-10 d,冬季滞后2-5 d;对风寒指数响应的滞后响应时间,春季7-8 d,夏季和秋季相关弱,冬季2-3 d;前期的空气污染和后期的剧烈降温叠加,可能是南京冬季呼吸系统疾病患者死亡的重要诱因;春季随着气温的回升,空气污染程度减轻,患者对气温变化的耐受性也延长了,但响应敏感性比冬季增强了;通过逐步回归,建立了冬季和春季南京呼吸系统疾病的死亡人数预报方程.

英文摘要：

By using the data of respiratory disease death toll and meteorology from 1 Jan. 2005 to 31 Dec. 2008 in Nanjing City, the influence of meteorology on the death toll of respiratory diseases were studied and the results showed that respiratory disease death toll was highest in winter, followed by spring, and less in autumn and summer. The response of the respiratory disease death toll to the meteorological factors had an apparent different lag structure in time, i.e. in spring lagging for 6-7 d, in summer and autumn lagging for 8-10 d, and in winter lagging for 2-3 d, whereas the response to wind chilling index was： in spring at a lag of 7 d, winter of 3 days, and the correlation was weak in summer and autumn. The air pollution in the early time of the day and the severe cooling in the late time might be the important causes for respiratory disease patient death in winter. In spring, with the increasing of temperature, and decreasing of air pollution, the response lag time to temperature became longer and the sensitivity of the response increased more than in winter. By using the stepwise regression method, the forecast equations of respiratory death toll were established for winter and spring.