中文摘要：

科学预测城镇化水平，对城镇化政策的制定、制度的改革、城市配套设施的建设以及就业问题的解决都具有重要意义。为了预测新疆生产建设兵团的城镇化发展水平，给出了一类基于组合权重的变权重组合预测方法，将该组合变权重组合预测模型应用于新疆生产建设兵团城镇化发展水平预测。计算结果表明组合变权重组合预测模型在时间序列数据的预测中具有一定的优势。

英文摘要：

It is significant to predict the urbanization level scientifically for the policy formulation,reformation,infrastructurebuilding of city and employment problem.In order to predict the urbanization level of Xinjiang Construction Corps,a kind of variableweight combination forecasting method based on the combination weight is presented.The combination forecasting model isapplied to the level of urbanization development of Xinjiang Construction Corps.The results indicated show that the combinationof variable weight combination forecasting model has certain advantages in the prediction of time series data.