中文摘要：

指数平滑预测和离散灰色模型是两类不同特点的预测方法．考虑到单项预测方法的局限性，提出了利用指数平滑预测和离散灰色模型的统计组合预测方法；进一步利用相关系数这一相关性指标确定组合预测模型的权系数：最后通过一个应用实例分析了统计组合预测方法的预测精度，并说明了该方法的有效性和可行性．

英文摘要：

In view of the limitations in the single forecasting model, the new combination forecast method was put forward according to the exponential smoothing method and the discrete GM （1, 1） model. And then, the weight coefficients are confirmed based on grey incidence degree. The application example indicates that the precision of combination forecast method is higher than single forecast models. So this new method is feasible and effective.