从系统脆弱性角度入手对海洋产业脆弱性的内涵进行深入剖析,在建立基于系统敏感性与应对能力的脆弱性指标体系的基础上,运用熵值法、TOPSIS法和障碍度评价公式对中国11个沿海省区2006—2013年海洋产业脆弱性的时间与空间演变特征和主要障碍因素进行了研究分析。结果表明:1海洋产业系统的敏感性与应对能力共同决定该系统脆弱性的大小;2沿海各省区海洋产业脆弱性时空差异非常明显:长江三角洲、环渤海等产业密集程度较高的发达地区海洋产业脆弱性较低、应对能力较高,产业密集程度低的地区应对能力低、脆弱性较高;3通过对2006—2013年中国沿海各省区海洋产业系统脆弱性时空演化图进行分析,可将其脆弱性演化趋势归为三类,即脆弱性较平稳型(河北、天津、山东、江苏、广东、广西、海南)、脆弱性平稳型(福建、上海)和脆弱性降低型(辽宁、浙江)。4障碍度评价公式可知,海洋产业结构优化程度、海洋产业科技含量、海洋从业人员素质与海洋环境保护是影响各省区海洋产业脆弱性的主要因素,且脆弱性越高的省区受上述因素的影响程度越明显。
From the aspect of system vulnerability, in- depth content of marine industry vulnerability was analyzed. On the basis of system sensi- tivity and coping ability, the vulnerability index system was built. Marine industry vulnerability of space - time evolution characteristics and the main influencing factors of 11 coastal provinces in China during 2006- 2013 years were analyzed by using entropy method, TOPSIS method and obstacle degree evaluation formula. The results showed that the sensitivity and coping ability of marine industry were detemlined. The marine industry had a relatively low level such as Tianjin, Jiangsu, Guangdong, Hainan, Shandong, Guan~xi, Liaoning, Hebei, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shanghai, Bohai and other provinces, which could be used to analyze the vulnerability of maine industry in China. Through calculation and analysis of obstacle degree evaluation formula, the results showed that marine industrial structure optimization level, the scientific and technological content of the marine industry, marine personnel quality and marine environment protection were main influence factors in the regions. The higher vulnerable provinces and municipalities were more affected by the above influence factors.