中文摘要：

了解和掌握太湖流域梅雨特性,对预测未来流域水文水资源情势变化,制订流域水资源利用和防洪决策等具有重要意义。本文根据1954-2009年共56年的梅雨特征量资料,采用经验正交函数分解（EOF）、非参数统计方法和Morlet连续小波等方法全面分析了太湖流域梅雨空间分布、长期变化趋势、丰枯变异和周期振荡等时空演变特征。研究结果表明：56年来,太湖流域梅雨主要有两种分布型态,梅雨特征量中,梅期长度与梅雨空间差异度具有显著增长的趋势,出梅日期、梅雨期长度、梅雨量、梅雨强度和梅雨集中度均在20世纪60年代末期具有明显的突变特征,太湖流域梅雨量在经历了5个阶段的丰枯变化之后,预计在2010年之后将进入偏丰期。

英文摘要：

It is of great significance to understand the characteristics of plum rains in Taihu Lake basin for predicting the future changes in watershed hydrology and water resources and formulating the decision of utilization of water resources and flood control.Based on characteristics of plum rains from 1954 to 2009,temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of plum rains in Taihu Lake basin,such as spatial variation,long-term trends,break point and periodic oscillations and etc.,were comprehensively analyzed by using of empirical orthogonal function decomposition（EOF）,nonparametric testing and Morlet continuous wavelet analysis.The results show that there are two distribution patterns for plum rains in Taihu Lake,length of period and space nonuniformity of plum rains have the trend of significant growth,and there is break point in the late of 1960s for characteristics of plum rains,such as the date of set-out,length of period,quantity and intensity.Taihu Lake basin will enter flood period after 2010 after experienced five stages of changes of flood and drought.