中文摘要：

水库防洪调度是优化区域水资源配置进而实现社会经济可持续发展的一项重要研究内容,防洪调度风险分析可为评判水文预报方案精度、合理选择动态汛限水位进而制定水库防洪调度规则提供科学的决策依据。为全面合理地识别和估计调度过程中的各种风险因子,将三角模糊数理论引入水库防洪调度风险分析研究领域,首先利用α-截集技术将水库防洪调度风险识别指标模糊化,即将风险识别指标由传统的确定值转化成与不同置信度水平α相对应的区间数,由此计算相应的模糊风险率区间值,进而提出了基于三角模糊数的水库防洪调度模糊综合风险分析模型。潘家口水库主汛期不同汛限水位调整方案的水库防洪调度模糊综合风险评价的应用结果表明：该水库主汛期汛限水位调整方案上限值为218.50 m;该风险分析方法物理意义明确、结果客观合理,可见在洪水资源安全利用系统风险分析中具有一定的推广应用价值。

英文摘要：

Reservoir flood control operation is an important issue for optimizing regional water resources allocation and realizing sustainable development of social economy,and risk analysis of the operation provides a decision-making basis for the evaluation of hydrological forecast accuracy and the determination of dynamic limited water level and operation rules.To fully identify and better estimate various risk factors of the operation,a triangular fuzzy number technique was introduced into the risk analysis and a three-steps procedure was adopted.First,the risk identification index was transformed into interval numbers by α-cut set technique at different confidence α,then the risk rate of each interval was calculated,and finally a fuzzy analysis model was developed.Application of this method to Panjiakou reservoir that adopts a scheme of adjustable limited water level shows an upper level value 218.50m during flood season.The proposed method is based on a good physical background and suitable for risk analysis of safe flood resources utilization.