中文摘要：

为建立道路交叉口防撞系统,提高交通安全水平,对交叉口车辆碰撞动态风险的估计模型及其仿真评价进行研究。分析了交叉口区域内的车辆碰撞类型,基于风险的概率内涵,提出了一种新的交叉口车辆动态风险估计概率模型;运用VISSIM微观交通仿真软件模拟常见的车辆运行场景,利用仿真输出的数据计算风险值并进行评价,将结果与其他模型产生的计算结果进行比较。结果表明：该风险估计模型易于确定碰撞警告阈值,适用于道路交叉口车辆防撞系统。

英文摘要：

In order to establish vehicle collision avoidance system at road intersection and improve traffic safety level, an innovative risk assessment model for vehicle collision avoidance system at road intersection was proposed and the performance simulation evaluation was also implemented. Taxonomy of intersection vehicle collision accident was provided at first. Based on connotation of risk possibility, a kind of new vehicle collision risk assessment probability model was proposed. VISSIM microcosmic traffic simulation software was used to simulate common vehicle running scene. Simulated output data was used to calculate risk value and the value which was compared with other results calculated by other models was assessed. Results show that the risk assessment model is easy to determine collision warning threshold value and can be applied to vehicle collision avoidance system at road intersection.