中文摘要：

电力规划方案的适应性与风险评估，是电力规划工作中一项极其重要的内容。在市场环境下，电网规划方案所存在的风险及其对不确定因素的适应性，是评估工作面临的新挑战。鉴于电力系统以及电力市场中诸多不确定性因素的影响，基于电力市场模拟的原理，将蒙特卡罗模拟引入到电网规划方案的适应性与风险评估之中，并详细描述了在电力市场环境中对不确定性因素进行蒙特卡罗模拟并应用于市场模拟和生产模拟的基本思想、方法、流程。主要围绕负荷与电价这两个不确定性因素展开，将整体思路应用于江苏省电网规划方案的分析之中，结合华东区域电力市场运营规则，进行了2010年电网规划的评估。实际应用表明，所提出的评估方法能够很好地突出市场中的关键因素，模拟市场中的极端情况，为市场环境下电网规划方案的适应性与风险评估提供了一个切实可行的方法和思路，具有较大的实用价值。

英文摘要：

It＇s one of the most important contents of power grid planning to perform its flexibility and risk assessment. In electricity market environment, it is a new challenge to the assessment that whether existing power grid planning can suit the uncertain factors or not and how to evaluate its flexibility and risk. In view of the impacts of uncertain factors in power grids and electricity markets, based on the basic principle of electricity market simulation, the Monte-Carlo simulation is introduced into flexibility and risk assessment of power grid planning under deregulation, and the basic idea, method and process of Monte-Carlo analysis for uncertain factors is applied to the market simulation and production simulation under electricity market condition are described in detail. Two main indices, i.e., load and the price of power, are focused on to apply the whole thinking in the evaluation of Jiangsu power grid planning and combining the operation rules of East China regional electricity market, the market simulation as well as risk evaluation of power grid planning in the year of 2010 is carried out. The application results show that the proposed flexibility and risk assessment method, which is capable of finding out the important factors in electricity market and simulate the extreme scenarios, is a powerful tool for flexibility and risk assessment of power grid planning under deregulation.