售电市场是电力营销的分析对象。售电市场受到众多不确定因素的影响,使得电网企业未来的售电量存在较大的不确定性。分析了售电市场中风险的来源及其影啊,以售电量为着眼点,提出基于序列运算理论的售电市场风险分析方法,通过算例对该方法进行了直观的说明。进一步探讨了售电市场中此类风险分析问题的实质及其对于电力营销工作的启示,提出了该方法的实用化操作过程。该方法对于预估售电市场的潜在风险、提前制定风险防范策略具有重要的参考价值。
Power sale market is the analysis object of power marketing. Affected by many uncertain factors, the future electricity sales of the electric corporation have great uncertainty. The risk sources and their influences on power sale market were analyzed, and a risk analyzing method, which is based on sequence operation theory, was brought out. A numeric example was given to demonstrate the method. Furthermore, the paper discussed the essence of risk analysis issue of power sale market and its revelation to power marketing, and proposes the application process of this method. This paper has reference value in predicting potential risk of power sale market and making risk prevention strategy in advance.