中文摘要：

风电可信容量是衡量风电对电力系统可靠性贡献的重要标志，准确快速地评估风电可信容量具有重要意义。提出一种基于序列运算的风电可信容量计算方法。通过序列化的方法描述常规机组、风电机组以及负荷的随机性，并利用基本的序列运算实现了考虑风电出力的随机生产模拟，进而通过迭代计算风电可信容量。采用加入风电后的IEEERTS．79算例测试了算法的有效性与快速性。结果表明，与传统蒙特卡罗法相比，所提出的计算方法在保证计算精度的情况下提高了计算速度。利用所提出的方法计算了江苏省千万千瓦级风电基地的可信容量，并研究了虚拟机组的参数对风电可信容量的影响规律。

英文摘要：

Wind power credible capacity is an important indicator for evaluating wind power＇s contribution to system reliability. It is of great importance to calculate it accurately and efficiently. A novel evaluation model of wind power credible capacity was presented based on sequence operation. The model used sequence to express the stochastic behavior of conventional power, wind power and load. Power system production simulation procedure was implemented via sequence basic operation and wind power credible capacity was obtained through iteration. Modified IEEE RTS-79 was utilized to verify the validity and efficiency of the proposed model. The results show that the proposed model achieved a great efficiency improvement compared to traditional Monte Carlo method under the same accuracy limit. Additional research was carried out using the proposed model, including evaluation of wind credible capacity of Jiangsu wind power base and the study on the impact of virtual unit parameters.