中文摘要：

在分析影响陕西省全社会用电量因素的基础上,初步选择第一产业产值、第二产业产值、第三产业产值、能源消费总量、人口自然增长率和城乡居民用电量作为初始变量.利用KMO检验剔除人口自然增长率,之后建立了陕西省全社会电力需求的主成分回归模型,得到主成分后,用MATLAB和SPSS软件对数据进行分析分别选择三次函数模型和幂次函数模型对主成分与社会用电量两个变量进行拟合,得到了较为精准的用电量预测模型.

英文摘要：

Based on the analysis of the factors influencing the whole social power consumption in Shanxi province, this paper selected the first, second and third industrial output value, the total energy consumption of urban and rural residents, the natural population growth rate and power consumption as the initial variables. After rejecting the natural population growth rate by KMO test, the principal component regression model of demand for electricity in the whole society in Shanxi province was set up. Then three function models and the exponential function models were chosen on the basis of data analysis by MAT- LAB and SPSS to fitting two variables of principal component and the power consumption. Finally the more accurate prediction model of power consumption was obtained.