中文摘要：

根据1978-2007年贵阳站的物候和气象资料,分析了贵阳站71种木本植物春秋季芽膨大期、展叶始期、始花期、叶完全变色期和落叶末期等5个关键物候期的变化趋势及其对气候变化的响应。结果表明：自1978年以来,贵阳年平均气温在振荡中明显下降,其中夏季气温降低最为明显,2月平均气温略有上升;春季芽膨大期、展叶始期和始花期等三种物候期均呈现出提前趋势,而秋季叶完全变色期和落叶末期呈现推迟趋势;春季物候期与物候期发生前若干月月平均气温的相关性较好,特别与当月和上月平均气温的相关关系最为显著。其中,2月月平均气温是影响春季三种物候期的关键指标,除此之外,贵阳站2、3月的日照时数也对春季物候期的提前起到促进作用;秋冬季物候期变化和气温、降水、日照时数的相关关系均不明显,这同秋季物候变化的复杂性和秋季物候期所受的影响因素较多有关。

英文摘要：

By using observed phenologieal and meteorological data from 1978 to 2007 at Guiyang station, the variation of 71 woody plants＇ five primary phenophases and their responses to climate change were analyzed, especially focused on the link between phenophases changes and climate changes before the phenophase onset, including leaf bud sprouting, first leaf unfolding, first flowering, leaf fully coloring and leaf fully defoliation. Conclusions are obtained as follows. 1） Since 1978, the mean annual temperature has dropped in oscillations totally, and decreased sharply after 2000, of which summer （June to August） temperature declined markedly, but spring （February to April） temperature had no clear variation except a slight increase of February temperature. 2） Three spring phenophases showed advancement generally, with advancement of 17 days for leaf bud sprouting, advancement of 15.5 days for first leaf unfolding and advancement of 16.7 days for first flowering during the past 30 years. But in the meantime, autumn phenophase delayed, with 19 days deleyed in leaf fully coloring and 14.3 days postponed of leaf fully defoliation. 3） Statistically significant correlation was found between the changes of spring phenophases and the mean temperature of one or several months before the phenophase onset, and the mean monthly temperature of February was the key indicator to the three spring phenophases. With 1℃ increase of monthly temperature of February, leaf bud sprouting, first leaf unfolding and first flowering advanced 3.4 days, 3. 3 days and 3.1 days, respectively. In addition, the sunshine duration change in February or March also played an important role in advancement of spring phenophase. 4） The variation of phenophases in autumn and winter had no clear relationship with the monthiy temperature, precipitation and sunshine duration respectively, due to the complexity of the autumn phenological variations and wide influence on them.