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中文摘要：
针对现有失效率计算模型只考虑飞机沿跑道方向起降模式的缺陷,提出了一种综合考虑飞机沿跑道方向和与跑道成一定夹角方向起降的跑道失效率计算模型.该模型利用Monte-Carlo方法,在通过数值模拟法产生子弹落点和利用随机抽样的方法生成多组与最小升降窗口等尺寸的矩形的基础上,通过判断仿真中飞机被封锁的次数来计算跑道失效率.试验结果表明：现有模型导致计算结果明显偏大,新方法更科学合理.同时, 也分析了新方法的计算精度.
英文摘要：
For overcoming the limitation of the current models for computing the destruction probability of the runway （DPR）, which only considers the airplane flying-off and landing along the runway, a new model was proposed, which also considers the airplane flying-off and landing along a direction slanting with the runway. This model takes advantage of Monte-Carlo method, after simulating the impact point of the sub-munitions and randomly sampling a series of rectangles having the same size with the min leave window （MLW）, the DPR was computed by judging the numbers the airplane blocked among the simulations. The computational results show that： the current models make the result distinctly lager, and this method is more reasonable and scientific. The calculating precision of our new model was analyzed.
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