到2030年,中国需要将4~5亿农民工市民化。在现有经济发展条件下,新生代农民工市民化需要依赖农民工人力资本、物质资本和社会资本积累,内在地提升市民化能力;政府提供制度保障和政策激励影响农民工市民化能力提升。中国应该走内生主导外生推动的市民化道路。基于各省差异化进城农民工比率的实证结果显示,城市政府承担的教育支出、社会保障与就业支出、医疗卫生支出、一般公共服务支出和住房保障支出5项市民化成本占本省一般预算支出比率平均为2.7%,城市政府具有市民化的财政能力可行性。
By 2030,400 to 500 million rural migrant workers in China will be urbanized.Under the existing economic development condition,the citizenization of the new generation migrant workers depends on the accumulation of their human capital,material capital and social capital to enhance the inherent citizenization ability.The government provides system security and policy stimulation to improve their citizenization ability.China should take the citizenization path of endogenous leading and exogenous propelling.Different ratios of rural migrant workers in different provinces show that the average ratio of five aspects of citizenization costs taken by urban government account for 2.7% of the general budget expenditure,including expenditures on education expenditure,social security and employment,medical and healthcare,general public service and housing security.This indicates that it is feasible for urban governments to provide financial support to the citizenization of rural migrant workers.