中文摘要：

目前在平行航路碰撞风险研究中,通常会忽略人为因素的影响。为更系统地研究平行航路的碰撞风险,提高碰撞风险值计算的准确性,先分析航路飞行特点找出陆空通话下平行航路中人因可靠性的影响因素;然后考虑人与人交互的过程,改进传统的认知可靠性与失误分析方法（CREAM）,构建平行航路中人因可靠性的计算模型。根据Brooker思想,建立并分析纵向、垂直、侧向3种平行航路碰撞风险模型。将所建模型应用于三亚区管中心。结果表明,陆空通话下某平行航路的碰撞风险值小于国际规定的安全目标水平,进而说明该模型可用于平行航路碰撞风险的研究。

英文摘要：

In most of the current parallel route collision risk researches, effects of human factors are often ignored. In order to evaluate the risk more systematically and improve accuracy of calculating the risk, factors affecting human reliability under radiotelephony communication condition were identified by analyzing the flight characteristic of parallel route. The traditional CREAM was improved by adding interaction between human. A computational model of human reliability on parallel route was constructed by using improved CREAM. Three parallel route collision risk models were built for longitudinal, vertical and lateral directions and analyzed based on Brooker＇s theory. At last, a numerical example was put forward. The calculation result indicates that the risk values are below the level of international safety target, and that the models are effective.