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中文摘要：
准确、合理地构建间歇性电源的发电功率模型对于电力系统的仿真分析与计算具有重要意义。提出了一种风光发电功率时间序列模拟的单变量与多变量马尔科夫链蒙特卡罗（MarkovchainMonteCarlo，MCMC）仿真方法。该模型针对风电场与光伏电站等多种类型的间歇性电源，构建发电功率时间序列的马尔科夫链，采用Gibbs抽样技术实现了单变量或多变量的时间序列模拟。不仅全面地分析了不同类型间歇性电源马尔科夫过程的特征与影响因素，并且在MCMC方法中考虑了多变量之间的相互联系，使模型能够适应多组间歇性电源彼此间存在相关性的情形。对德国2家电力公司控制区域内的风电场、光伏电站进行仿真模拟，通过统计特征参数的对比分析，验证了所提模型的有效性。
英文摘要：
Constructing a model of generated power for intermittent power source accurately and reasonably is of great significance for power system simulation and analysis. A single- and multi-variable Markov chain Monte Carlo （MCMC） method to simulate time series of wind and photovoltaic （PV） power is proposed. Aiming to many types of intermittent power source such as wind farms and PV generation stations, the proposed model constructs Markov chain for time series of generated power and utilizing Gibbs sampling the single- or multi-variable time series simulation is realized. Not only the features and impacting factors of Markov processes for different types of intermittent power sources are overall analyzed, and in the MCMC method the interrelation among multi-variables is considered, thus the proposed model can adapt to the condition that there are interrelations among multi sets of intermittent power sources. The wind farms and PV power plants located in the control areas of two power companies in Germany are simulated, and through the comparative analysis on statistical feature parameters the validity of the proposed model is verified.
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