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中文摘要：
地理位置邻近的多个风电场之间，风速会具有较强的相关性。文中采用一种基于自回归滑动平均（ARMA）模型和时移技术的方法，研究了风速相关性对概率潮流计算结果的影响，并对其相关影响因素进行了分析，重点研究了风速相关性对节点电压概率密度分布、满足一定电压质量要求的最大允许风电装机容量和最小无功补偿量这3方面的影响。研究结果表明，考虑风速相关性可以更合理地评估风电场对电网静态电压运行特性的影响，有利于更好地进行电网规划和确定电网的运行方式。
英文摘要：
Wind speeds at different wind farms with close geographical location have a strong correlation. The impact of wind speed correlation on probabilistic load flow （PLF） is studied by using a hybrid method of auto-regressive and moving average （ARMA） model and time-shifting technique. The factors with different influencing degrees are analyzed. The research focuses on three aspects of influence including probability density distribution of node vo.ltage, wind farm maximum capacity and minimum reactive power compensation in order to meet certain requirements on voltage quality. The research results reveal that it can help to assess the impact of multiple wind farms on network voltage profile more reasonably and select better network planning scheme and operating modes if wind speed correlation is considered. This work is jointly supported by Special Fund of the National Basic Research Program of China （No. 2009CB219701）, National Natural Science Foundation of China （No. 50937002） and AREVA T＆D Technology Center （China） Co. Ltd. （No. CTC HUST-002）.
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